Forex: USD/CHF back to 1.1700 after reaching 1.1743, 4-weeks high

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/CHF is back close to 1.1700 level after reaching a fresh 4-weeks high at 1.1743. Currently, the pair is trading around 1.1695/1.1705, 0.10% increases from today's opening price.According to Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com collaborator, bullish bias remains intact: "Bullish strength remains intact in the pair, and the pair is consolidating close to today’s high, moving since past Asian opening in a tight range. Above 1.1716 that continues to be today’s high, also a previous weekly high and the pair could continue dominant trend. Indicators turned flat due to last hours consolidation, no clear sign from there. Under 1.1645 zone, some selling pressure could be seen."

Brazil Govt Oks BRL4 Bln Credit For States To Face Slowdown

Brazil Govt Oks BRL4 Bln Credit For States To Face Slowdown BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazil's National Monetary Council in an extraordinary meeting late Friday approved 4 billion reals ($1.83 billion) in credit for state governments, the central bank said Monday. The loans, to be extended by the country's BNDES national development bank, will carry an interest charge of Brazil's TJLP long-term interest rate plus 3% annually. The TJLP interest rate is currently set at 6.25% annually. The loans come with a repayment period of eight years following a one-year grace period. According to the government, the loan funds must be used for investments and cannot be applied toward current spending. The extension of the loan funding for states comes following the approval of BRL1 billion in federal loans for cities last week. Brazil's states and cities have seen a decline in tax revenue over recent months following a deceleration of the country's economy. The National Monetary Council is Brazil's highest ranking economic decision-making body. -By Gerald Jeffris, Dow Jones Newswires; (5561) 3335-0832, gerald.jeffris@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=MnB3XRVmzONaVN%2BYqC6tLw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

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Articles and Reviews

The Alpari Group, an online provider of Forex trading, is planning to expand globally and add derivatives and commodities on the heels of seeing daily trade volumes exceed $60 billion last year. Alpari U.S. will expand into Brazil and British Columbia, while Alpari U.K. has plans to grown in Japan and Singapore. Additional expansions are currently being discussed. Alpari U.S. also plans to offer futures and precious metals trading this year, with Alpari U.K. planning to launch futures, financial futures, and precious metals trading, said Andrey Vedikhin, co-founder.

Oil N' Gold Focus Reports

WTI crude oil continues to trade below 50 in European session. Although we have been saying that upside for oil price is limited due to weak fundamentals, decline these 2 days was brought by reversal in market sentiment. The black gold's recent rally was driven by improved confidence that global economy will recover in 2H09 but the outbreak of swine in Mexico may potentially delay it.
In our opinion, the negative impact from the flu on oil price may not be as serious as the market anticipated. As many investors compare the current situation with the SARS in 2002, we would like to look back and see what had happened at that time.

Transparency as a guiding principle

By focusing exclusively on its client's interests, Pictet & Cie has made transparency its guiding principle. The Bank executes all trades on its clients' behalf directly on open markets and therefore ensures they enjoy competitive prices. Pictet & Cie has decided to keep transaction costs transparent and to dissociate itself from the market making system, where the spread between the buy and sell prices can be used to mask a bank's commission charges. Our clients therefore know the exact price or rate obtained via the correspondent, as well as knowing how much the transaction cost them. In order to ensure that its client's long-term interests are as closely aligned as possible with those of the Bank, Pictet & Cie intends to continue doing business independently, in the best private banking tradition.

Weekly Commodity Update

Keeping it real!
With Crude Oil and Gold being in the spotlight this week, especially against purchasing news out of china, we still need to keep our feet firmly planted on the ground as we take a look at the facts.
Looking at the raw data on Crude Oil provided by the EIA, it is very hard to be supportive of a bullish price action for the near term. Crude Oil, Distillate’s, Gasoline and Propane stocks all reflect a much higher cyclical average than previously seen for this time of the year. This is underpinned by above average production level and Crude Oil days of supply.

Forex: EUR/GBP falls close to 89.00 key level after good CBI data

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/GBP has fallen close to 0.8900 level after a better than expected CBI retail sales data. Since the early European morning, EUR/GBP has lost around 60 pips from 0.8971, intra-day low, to 0.8910. Currently the pair is trading around 0.8910/20 after rising 0.07% so far today from opening price at 0.8909.CBI retail sales have posted a balance of +3 in April from -44 in March, which could indicate that the consumption slump has hit its bottom in the UK.. April’s sharp increase has been a positive surprise, as market consensus was for a -40 balance.Yesterday, the pair lost 1.32% from opening price at 0.9025, reaching 0.9056 as maximum and 0.8882 as minimum, to close the day at 0.8907.

GBP experienced profit taking as option names caught the European interbank market long. Cable and GBP/JPY suffered the most on the pull back, with the former trading back below 1.6500 as 1.6600 option strikes capped, while the latter traded back in to 161.55. A U.K. clearer bid underpinned EUR/GBP at 0.8500 and successfully absorbed selling interest from another U.K. name. Trailing stops are currently being filled in Cable, but this pullback should not damage the underlying bull trend that is currently influencing. Elsewhere, some attention is being paid to a Telegraph article, which is citing First Secretary of State Lord Mandelson, who said that Britain will obviously join the euro.

Forex Update

The S&P futures continue to creep further away from our uptrend lines as the bulls fight to avoid a retest of 900. The further our uptrend lines drift away, the more likely we are to see a sizeable pullback. On a positive note, buyers were able to keep the S&P at a reasonable level despite a report showing a decline in consumer prices in addition to Standard and Poors slashing its ratings on 22 U. S. banks. While considerable hope remains that the U. S. economy is on the path to recovery, investors can’t ignore that equities have made an incredible run thus far this year.

Economic Events

Economic Events & Indicators analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the interests of the economy, industrial sectors and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast for the future. Learning the monthly sequence of economic releases and market reaction to each release is one of the first steps in learning to track the economy. Forex traders should be taught to compare market expectations with actual economic indicators and then evaluate market reactions. Kye Economic Indicators have strong effects on Forex Market so currency traders should be aware of them when preparing strategies. Many profitable forex trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Forex fundamental analysis and technical analysis are essentially the two types of foreign exchange trading. Which one of this trading is better for me to make money? In fact, both are equally important if you want to make high profits from forex markets. Now let’s see what is meant by forex fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

In simple terms, the fundamental analysis looks at the world economy while technical analysis considers forex charts. The usage of forex robots like FAP Turbo and forex charting software programs are examples of technical analysis. But this guide we will discuss about the various economic or fundamental factors that can affect your forex trading profits.

Forex Fundamental Analysis Tutorial

In this tutorial you will learn how to implement fundamental analysis in your trading style. This is what some people called institutional Forex trading system.
You should learn the basic macroeconomic factors that influence global market. This is called fundamental analysis.

There is a great controversy between traders that use only technical analysis and traders that use only fundamental analysis. For me this is only academic. If there is information out there you should carefully watch it. Do not rely only in technicals or fundamentals. Use both. When you have a solid technical pattern that is supported by fundamentals then the chance that you are right is imminent. When technicals and fundamentals show in different directions then you should watch out. Do not be trigger happy with your Forex trading. Wait and see. Forex is not for prophets. You use scientific analysis in order to maximize the chance that you correctly recognize what the market has to give you. Analyze thoroughly, have a solid technical pattern, know the fundamental support of your analysis and you have a nice trading decision. Seize your risk tolerance and you will be a winner.

The Fundamentals Of Forex Fundamentals

Those trading in the foreign-exchange market (forex) rely on the same two basic forms of analysis that are used in the stock market: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The uses of technical analysis in forex are much the same: price is assumed to reflect all news, and the charts are the objects of analysis. But unlike companies, countries have no balance sheets, so how can fundamental analysis be conducted on a currency?

Since fundamental analysis is about looking at the intrinsic value of an investment, its application in forex entails looking at the economic conditions that affect the valuation of a nation's currency. Here we look at some of the major fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency.

What is Forex fundamental analysis?

The forex fundamental analyst identifies and measures factors that determine the intrinsic value of a financial instrument, such as the general economic and political environment, and including any that affect supply and demand for the underlying product or service. If there is a decrease in supply but the level of demand remains the same, then there will be an increase in market prices. An increase in supply produces the opposite effect.

For example, an analyst for a given currency studies the supply and demand for the country's currency, products or services (Merchandise Trade); its management quality and government policies; its historic and forecasted performance; its future plans and the most important for the shorter term, all the economic indicators.

From this data, the analyst constructs a model to determine the current and forecasted value of a currency against an other. The basic idea is that unmatched increases in supply tend to depress the currency value, while unmatched increases in demand tend to increase the currency value. Once the analyst estimates intrinsic value, he compares it to the current exchange rate and decides whether the currency ought to rise or fall.

One difficulty with fundamental analysis is accurately measuring the relationships among the variables. Necessarily, the analyst must make estimates based on experience. In addition, the forex markets tend to anticipate events and discount them in the currency value in advance. Finally, serving as both a disadvantage and even as an advantage (depending upon the timing), the markets often take time to recognise that exchange rates are out of line with value.

Currency Market Remains In A Risk-Aversion Mode

Overall, the currency market remained in a risk-aversion mode throughout the European session, as the equity markets moved lower and S&P futures declined at a sustained pace. The market’s risk-aversion phase made the major currencies decline compared to the dollar, but still the yen traded range-bound. The market is expected to remain in a risk-aversion mode throughout the U.S. session, since the release calendar is almost empty and there are not any important meetings scheduled that could turn the market around.

The Euro (Eur/Usd) fell very easily down to the 1.3850 area during the overnight session, but since then the pair appeared powerless to break lower. Moreover, the second part of the European session proved very volatile as the S&P futures were breaking lower, but still the euro was not able to break the intra-day support level. During the European session, a release showed that the German Ifo Business Climate increased for a third consecutive month in June.

About fundamental analysis

The underlying elements affecting the economy of the subject is studied by Forex fundamental analysis. According to this method, the analysis of economic indicators, social factors and government policy of a business cycle can forecast price movement and trends of the market. The fundamentals of any country, multinational industry or trading bloc lie in the combination of factors like social, political and economic influences. Though, it is rather hard to stay aside from all these variable factors. So, the sphere of complicated and subtle market fundamental lets the explorer know and understand more details of a dynamic global market during the analyzing.

Foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange market (currency, forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. ^[1]FX transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when worldover countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system until 1971.

Presently, the FX market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other financial institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements.^[2] Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual FX Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.^[3]

The purpose of FX market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies.

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Forex analytics

There are two main types of analysis one can use trading in the Forex. They are Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis. You should know a little about both types in spite of the fact that there has always been a debate which analysis is more preferable. It's necessary to examine the currency markets from aside and learn how news influences prices. You should know and understand the daily Forex news and market analysis proposed by professional currency analysts. Soon you'll realize what big part fundamental news are playing in your everyday trading. Luckily, most Forex news and analysis are offered on the Internet free of charge. We'll name these sites.

Technical analysis

Technical analysis is equal to charts, or, in other words, it's the study of price movement. The thing is that anyone can look at historical price fluctuations, and according to them, predict at some point where the price will go. In the charts one can find trends and patterns which will help you find good trading options. The most necessary thing in technical analysis is the trend! A lot of people know quite well that "The trend is your friend". You will more apparently succeed if you're able to find a trend and trade in the same direction, and Technical analysis can help you identify these trends as soon as possible. Then you'll get more beneficial trading opportunities.

About brokers

Most clients eventually spend more cash on the market than they gain. Major causes of this phenomenon are the clients' low level of training, their emotional volatility, and lack of familiarity with foreign languages. The clients tend to not pay attention to the global events. Based on this fact, the "kitchen" method was born. Under this technique, the forex brokers take for granted that the client will lose money.

The forex broker acts as a liaison of the client to the forex market. The broker guides the client on the methods of trade. Just like a stock broker, a foreign exchange broker will provide technical analysis and research of the market situation. The information is supposed to increase the client's profit.

Financial companies are able to affect the forex market the most due to high number of large transactions they do. Before the emergence of the Internet, banks were the only organizations with access to forex. Now, however, practically anyone can enter the market at any time through a broker.

How did the taipans and billionaires get so filthy rich?!

Besides the more obvious hard work and diligence and always saving little by little in their piggy banks, the really rich guys know how to work up the foreign exchange.

Basically, foreign exchange trading or simply FOREX trading is just the buying and selling of the world’s currencies. Money today is not the same as money tomorrow. Money has time value. The worth of a currency can go up or down.

There is one secret that FOREX traders live by. And it is buy low, sell high. Don’t ever forget that rule.

However, the trick is to know when to buy and when to sell. In FOREX trading, everything is by speculation. Sure, there are graphs to aid decisions. Business pages also give out strategies for the day. But the next step is always a guess based from the previous actions.

FOREX traders like to call their speculations as smart guesses. Usually, patterns on the currency values can be derived from how the politics of a specific country is running.

For example, if there is a plan to oust the president, most probably the value of that country’s currency will go down—how low, we don’t know. Usually. Because there are still a lot of factors to consider why a currency is going strong or not.

Improvement on the tourism sector can mean more foreign investments. This will be good for a particular currency, but this may affect how the other countries are doing.

These are just trade scenarios. As the cliché goes, one man’s medicine may be another man’s poison. One country’s good tidings may be another country’s, well, downfall.

That is why in FOREX trading, another secret to live by is to be aware of the national news in the country concerned.

Current events have a say on the economics of a country. Money makes the world go round, so to speak.

But, if one is truly serious in earning their first million in FOREX trading, another secret is—it might be a good idea to invest in a FOREX trading training school. Learn from the pros and conquer the world afterwards.

Let me leave you one last secret I learned from my father. If everyone is going in this direction, go the other way. This applies to FOREX and other areas of life. You won’t ever get rich by following the crowd.

Besides buying low and selling high, follow that last secret and you might just join the ranks of the taipans and billionaires.

Common mistakes made when investing in the Forex Market

Learn how to make an investment in Forex is not enough to succeed. Just knowing how to invest and which are the most common currencies of investment, as the U.S. Dollar, Euro, etc. are just the basics of investing. Knowing when to invest and what to invest in are two of the most essentials things to success in FX trading. But, why people that knows all these stuff still lose money? Here are some of the most common errors people make when trading in the Forex Market:

Forex Trading Information

FOREX — the foreign exchange (currency or forex, or FX) market is the and the most liquid financial market with the daily volume of more than $3.2 trillion. Trading on this market involves buying and selling world currencies taking the profit from the exchange rates difference. Forex trading can yield high profits, but it is also very risky. Everyone can participate in Forex trading via the Forex brokers.

What is Forex (Foreign Exchange)?

Foreign Exchange (FOREX) is the arena where a nation's currency is exchanged for that of another. The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with the equivalent of over $1.9 trillion changing hands daily; more than three times the aggregate amount of the US Equity and Treasury markets combined. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location and no central exchange (off-exchange). It operates through a global network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another. The lack of a physical exchange enables the Forex market to operate on a 24-hour basis, spanning from one zone to another in all the major financial centers.